Why did Geelong lose the AFL Grand Final and can they make it back?
The Brisbane Lions won the AFL Grand Final by 47 points, stunning the Geelong Cats who defeated Brisbane by 48 points in the qualifying final only four weeks before. Here’s a summary of the strategies and statistics that determined the Grand Final.
Why did Geelong lose?
Geelong mostly kicked it high and long inside the metre zone 50 where Brisbane's key defenders were dominant in the air as Brisbane had 30 spoils. Geelong only had nine marks inside 50, down from their average of 15.
This was partially due to Geelong’s tall forwards, as Shannon Neale called for the ball to be kicked over the back of a Brisbane defender instead of running toward the kicker to receive the pass (leading) throughout the game.
Geelong players also did not stay on their matchups in stoppages as Brisbane scored 11 goals from stoppage.
Brisbane’s Zac Bailey and Will Ashcroft especially, were given too much space at stoppages to run freely and approach the hitout with momentum.
Will Ashcroft was voted the best player in the Grand Final for the 2nd year in a row at only 21 years of age. Zac Bailey had five clearances and could have been best on ground had he been accurate at kicking at goal, as he kicked three goals and six behinds.
Geelong’s lack of pressure on Brisbane’s midfielders was damaging beyond stoppages, as Brisbane’s midfielders were able to receive the ball with momentum by handball. This led to more efficient inside 50 entries as Brisbane were more composed kicking the ball to a leading player than Geelong. For example, Geelong’s, Oslin Mullin, tagged Brisbane’s, Hugh McLuggage, at stoppages, but McLuggage was effective outside of stoppage by running hard to receive a handball and then kicking it to teammate, Kai Lohman for Brisbane’s first goal.
The Lions tackling pressure inside 50 was also immense, as Brisbane had 17 tackles inside 50 as Geelong struggled to transition the ball effectively from their defensive 50. Whereas, Brisbane's backline were more composed exiting their defensive 50 as Geelong only had 7 tackles inside 50, which was half of their season average.
Geelong’s captain, Patrick Dangerfield, was not as impactful in the Grand Final, after his three goal and 31 disposal performance in the preliminary final. Dangerfield only had 10 disposals and was closely defended by Brisbane defender, Brandon Starcevich. Dangerfield did not play much midfield in the Grand Final where he could have helped since Geelong were failing to win clearances in the 2nd half.
Geelong midfielders, Max Holmes and Bailey Smith had a combined 62 disposals between them, however, they were inefficient as they had a combined 17 turnovers between them.
Brisbane kicked nine goals in the last quarter, but Geelong struggled all game with how to negate Brisbane’s midfield of Bailey, Dunkley, Ashcroft, McLuggage and Neale while still trying to win clearances in their own right. Negating Brisbane’s midfield will be a challenge for teams in the league over the next few seasons, but Geelong made it more difficult for themselves to contain Brisbane’s midfielders by allowing them to roam freely inside and out of stoppages, which is why Brisbane won.
Geelong’s Best: Jake Henry, Jack Bowes, Ollie Dempsey, Lawson Humphries
Brisbane’s Best: Zac Bailey, Will Ashcroft, Harris Andrews, Darcy Gardiner
Can Geelong return to the Grand Final next year to redeem themselves?
Geelong will have to defy recent history to return to the Grand Final next season, because since 2000, none of 12 teams who have lost by 40 points or more in the Grand Final have won a game in the finals the following season. Infact, seven out of the 12 teams, or 58%, have not even been able to make the finals the following season. Most recently Sydney finished 10th this season after losing to Brisbane by 60 points in the last Grand Final.