The Coalition Splits again, for a Second Time in Less Than a Year
Australia’s longest political alliance has, for the second time in less than a year, collapsed, with questions over the future of Australian centre-right politics | Image Credit: Canva.
The Liberal-National Coalition, Australia’s longest-running political alliance of liberal and conservative traditions, has fractured for the second time since last year’s election – a major blow to Liberal Leader Sussan Ley.
This fracture follows increasing tensions within both the Liberal and National parties position to legal reforms, including the government’s hate speech and gun buyback schemes in response to the Bondi Beach Massacre in December 2025.
During the National Day of Mourning on 22 January for the victims of the Bondi Beach Massacre, National Leader David Littleproud announced his party’s withdrawal from the Coalition, arguing it has become ‘untenable’.
“It’s time for the Liberal Party to work out who they are and what they are,” said Mr Littleproud.
Pressure is mounting on Sussan Ley to resign, with numerous moderates and conservatives, including those who backed her rise to the leadership in May 2025, declaring her “a dead woman walking”.
WHY THE COALITION BROKE UP, AGAIN
Sussan Ley and David Littleproud in May 2025 announcing the creation of the first shadow ministry, one of many more to come | Image Credit: Sussan Ley, Facebook.
After mounting political pressure and fallout from the Bondi Beach Massacre, including repeated calls from the opposition for the Albanese government to recall Parliament, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese caved in to launch a suite of legal responses.
These responses included calling a Royal Commission into Antisemitism, and tough laws criminalising individuals and organisations who spread hate towards Jewish groups in Australia.
However, despite the Coalition initially demanding a swift and tough response, it quickly tied itself into knots, ironically demanding the government’s legal response be delayed due to concerns it was proceeding too fast without debate.
Fears also arose after the release of The Australian’s Newspoll, which found for the first time One Nation had overtaken the Coalition on primary vote, with leader Pauline Hanson achieving 22 per cent to Ms Ley’s 21 per cent – a drop of 14 per cent since 2022 – the largest in Coalition history.
The government and Coalition eventually struck a deal, agreeing to give the Minister for Home Affairs stronger powers to punish people with visas or groups who “promote violence”, however the damage had already been done.
Senior Nationals Bridget McKenzie, Ross Cadell and Susan McDonald broke ranks and crossed the floor to oppose the government’s hate speech reforms during a late-night vote, aware that the consequences would precipitate them losing their shadow cabinet positions.
“I am willing to take the consequences of my actions. I think that is fair,” said Senator Cadell.
The next day, the mutiny escalated into a full-blown crisis, with all eight National frontbenchers resigning their roles, with Mr Littleproud saying the Nationals could not support Sussan Ley as leader.
“Sussan Ley has put protecting her own leadership ahead of maintaining the Coalition,” he said.
COALITION A ‘SMOKING RUIN’
As speculation raises over the future of Sussan Ley’s leadership, questions over Littleproud’s future as leader are returning | Image Credit: David Littleproud, Facebook.
Sussan Ley had maintained she would “survive” as leader of the Liberal Party, despite continuing pressure from the Nationals and members of her own party; her continued leadership is preventing any reconciliation.
Appearing in tense interviews with Seven and Nine News, Ms Ley attempted to appear undisturbed by the split, instead arguing the Nationals and Liberals can still iron out their differences.
“Every step I’ve taken has been with the support of my Liberal leadership team,” she said.
“But today, I simply repeat what I said 24 hours ago, which is that the door between a Coalition, between our two parties, from my point of view, is still open.”
Despite this show of unity, SkyNews reports multiple liberal MPs, including one who describes themselves as a “Coalitionist” said Ms Ley’s “days are numbered," with another saying she “cannot remain” as opposition leader.
The political fallout has naturally attracted the interest of the government, which exploited the Coalition’s woes, with Treasurer Jim Chalmers labelling the Coalition “a smoking ruin” that put ‘internal politics’ before the National Mourning for the Bondi Massacre.
“They can’t help themselves. This three-ring circus, which is the Coalition now, they’re so exclusively focused on internal politics that they can’t see what’s really important here…that we unite in grief and in resolve and solidarity,” he told ABC Radio National.
However, as pressure mounts on Ms Ley to resign, other Liberal MPs are shifting the onus to Mr Littleproud, arguing they shouldn’t ‘be dictated’ into decisions.
Liberal Deputy Leader and potential leadership hopeful Ted O’Brien came out defending Ms Ley, giving her his full support.
Asked by American media outlet NBC News in a brief telephone interview the same day whether he would use military force to seize Greenland, President Trump said “no comment”.
IS IT LEYOVER?
Sussan Ley may join a long list of Liberal Leaders who failed to resurrect its fortunes following an election loss | Image Credit: Lukas Coch, AAP.
Former Nationals Leader and now One Nation MP, Barnaby Joyce, argues the unfolding political turmoil would only convince voters the days of the Liberal-National parties were over, admitting he is attempting to convince old colleagues to join him.
‘I’m starting to wonder, maybe I'm missing something, maybe they’re on a recruitment drive for One Nation and that’s what’s happening here,” he told The Australian.
“One Nation’s got massively higher membership than the Nationals and we stand in every seat in the city and in regional areas, so you’ve basically made yourself politically irrelevant”
The Liberal’s ‘National Right’ faction currently holds a plurality, however is divided between an old conservative guard, led by Angus Taylor, and a rising populist new guard under the controversial leadership of Andrew Hastie.
Other moderate options include Deputy Leader Ted O’Brien, and Victorian MP Tim Wilson as options to succeed Sussan Ley.
However, despite what may appear a majority of the party room losing confidence in Ms Ley’s leadership, many Liberal MPs fear the repercussions from voters if they were to forcibly remove the party’s first female leader.
Regardless of the Liberal Party’s fortunes, the situation has given Mr Albanese an opportunity to build back his political fortunes following a slump after Bondi.