Tasmanian Election Results Explained

Despite losing a vote of no confidence in Tasmania’s Parliament, voters have left the door open for a Labour minority government.

Tasmanians have voted to return another hung Parliament, remaining steadfast in support of Premier Jeremy Rockliff’s Liberals, while delivering a blow to Tasmanian Labor Leader Dean Winter. 

The Australian Electoral Commission projects the Liberals will be the largest party despite falling short of another majority, with swings against Labor likely to reduce its footprint in Parliament. 

The Greens have successfully defended their position on the crossbench, while all former Jacquie Lambie Network representatives Rebekha Pentland, Miriam Beswick, and Andrew Jenner have been defeated by independent candidates. 

Premier Rockliff proclaimed victory, saying “tonight the people of Tasmania [have] said that they have no confidence in the Labor Party to form government…and they have voted to re-endorse our Liberal government”.

Opposition Leader Winter has refused to concede, instead prioritising negotiations with the crossbench in hopes of forming a minority government, despite ruling out doing a deal with the Greens.

Election Results

Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff addressing party faithful | Jeremy Rockliff Facebook

Vote counting remains underway; however, current data from the Australian Electoral Commission projects the State Liberals to be the largest party in Tasmania’s House of Assembly, currently ahead in 15 out of 8 seats required for a majority.

The Liberals recorded a +3 per cent swing off State Labor, leaving them hovering around 40 per cent of first preferences, a result that increases Premier Rockliff’s chances of returning to government.

Labor, which in March joined forces with the crossbench to vote no confidence in the Rockliff government, has suffered a -3 per cent swing, leaving them ahead in 10 seats, the same as their 2024 result but with a diminished first preference vote of under 26 per cent.

Speaking on the results, Mr Winter said voters had delivered “[a] resounding message that they want their politicians to work together more collaboratively”.

The Greens experienced a minor swing towards them, leaving them hovering around 14 per cent of the vote; however, former Jacquie Lambie Network turned National MPs failed to over the line through Tasmania’s Hare-Clark System.

Independent MPs Craig Garland, Kristie Johnson and David O’Bryne successfully defended their positions, with Teal Independent and former ABC journalist Peter George successfully winning in Franklin.

The Jacquie Lambie Network, which in last year’s State election successfully carried 3 candidates into the Assembly Offices, saw all its former MPs lose their seats.

Forming Government

Parliament of Tasmania

Both major parties failed to secure a majority, again, and therefore will have to either form a confidence or coalition agreement with the crossbench, or continue to govern in a minority government.

Both Premier Rockliff and Opposition Leader Winter have signalled joint intentions to pursue any pathways to government for their respective sides, with Mr Winter allowing Premier Rockliff to go first.

If the Liberals win 15 seats, they will need the support of at least 3 other crossbench MPs to govern to reach the 18-seat majority threshold.

Labor, assuming it wins 10 seats, will need to win the confidence of both the Greens and the wider crossbench to achieve the majority threshold.

If confidence cannot be found, Premier Rockliff can choose to govern in a minority without the support of the crossbench, but this ultimately re-opens the window of another successful no-confidence vote down the track.

Until the next government is decided, Tasmanians, unfortunately, are likely to see political squabbling continue to dominate another term of Parliament.